The research also raises questions about El Ni-o and mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918. By mid-1918, a flu outbreak - which we now know was the H1N1 strain that is of great concern today - was sweeping the world, and the resulting fatalities were catastrophic: At least 25 million people died worldwide, with some estimates as high as 100 million deaths. India was particularly hard hit by the influenza.

"We know that there is a connection between El Ni-o and drought in India," Giese notes.

"It seems probable that mortality from influenza was high in India because of famine associated with drought, so it is likely that El Ni-o contributed to the high mortality from influenza in India."

The flu epidemic of 1918, commonly called the "Spanish Flu," is believed to be the greatest medical holocaust in history. It lasted from March of 1918 to June of 1920, and about 500 million people worldwide became infected, with the disease killing between 25 million to 100 million, most of them young adults. An estimated 17 million died in India, between 500,000 to 675,000 died in the U.S. and another 400,000 died in Japan.

Could the events of 1918 be a harbinger of what might occur in 2009?

Giese says there are some interesting parallels. The winter and spring in 1918 were unusually cold throughout North America, just at the time influenza started to spread in the central U.S. That was followed by a strengthening El Ni-o and subsequent drought in India. As the El Ni-o matured in the fall of 1918, the influenza became a pandemic.

With a moderate to strong El Ni-o now forming in the Pacific and the H1N1 flu strain apparently making a vigorous comeback, the concerns today are obvious, Giese adds.

Source: Texas A&M University