Dr Tini Garske, lead author of the study from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling at Imperial College London, said:

"Accurately predicting the severity of this swine flu pandemic is a very tricky business, and our research shows that this can only be achieved if data is collected according to well designed study protocols and analysed in a more sophisticated way than is frequently being performed at present.

"If we fail to get an accurate prediction of severity, we will not be providing healthcare planners, doctors and nurses, with the information that they need to ensure they are best prepared to fight the pandemic as we head into the flu season this autumn.

The research was funded by a Medical Research Council UK Centre grant.

imperial.ac