"Our results illustrate the importance of considering transmission when allocating vaccines" said Galvani. The paper was co-authored by Jan Medlock of Clemson University.

The CDC expanded its seasonal flu vaccination recommendations in 2008 to include children up to 18 years old. Still, Galvani's study determined that previous, and new, guidelines for both swine and seasonal flu performed substantially worse than the optimal strategies that she and her group identified.

For example, using the ACIP's new vaccination policies for the swine flu, the study determined that ACIP recommendations would result in 1.3 million infections, 2,600 deaths, and $2.8 billion in economic impact. In contrast, Galvani's model resulted in 113,000 infections, 242 deaths, and $1.6 billion in cost.

Galvani said reducing CDC prioritization of children under age 5 and the elderly could significantly improve the CDC's recommendations.

"The optimal allocation of vaccines is paramount to minimizing mortality and morbidity in the population, particularly when there is a supply shortage," she said.

Source: Yale University