The Burden of Disease Database (BoDD) reveals that Thailand will become unhealthier over the next 20 years. The number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable disease will increase from 6,518,798 in 2008 to 8,438,723 in 2030, a rise of 29%. Meanwhile, the number of DALYs lost to communicable disease will increase from 3,526,188 in 2008 to 5,303,347, a rise of 50%. The main driver of these increases is a growing and ageing population.

Thailand's GDP is expected to contract by -4.5% in real terms during 2009, from THB9,103bn (US$267bn) to THB8,813bn (US$253bn). This means that both state and patients will have less money to spend on healthcare. Partial economic recovery is forecast for 2009/2010, with full growth returning the following year. Pharmaceutical sales will rebound slightly in 2010, but then slowly decrease over our 10- year forecast period. It must be noted however that Thailand's projected growth is still one of the highest in our 71-market coverage universe, and above the average for Asia Pacific. By 2018, the value of annual pharmaceutical sales in Thailand will have reached just under US$10bn.

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